The ambitious deal between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is facing challenges, as the refinery experienced a crude oil supply shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, according to findings by The PUNCH.

Data obtained from an impeccable senior management source within the refinery indicated that the facility, which requires approximately 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly to operate at full capacity, received significantly lower volumes during the review month.

The official argued that, under the Petroleum Industries Act, the export of crude before meeting local demand was clearly prohibited, stressing that the $20bn Lekki-based plant had been grappling with inadequate crude volumes, while the country, through NNPC, continued to export some of its oil.

A breakdown of the figures shows that the refinery is supposed to get about 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly, but it got 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million barrels in November, 4.30 million barrels in December, 5.65 million barrels in January, and 4.66 million barrels in February. For March, only 3.6 million barrels were delivered between the 1st and 15th.

In total, crude supplied within the five-and-a-half-month period stood at 29.21 million barrels, compared to an estimated 108.74 million barrels required for the same duration. This translates to a supply performance of about 26.9 per cent, indicating that more than three-quarters of the refinery’s crude needs were not met.

At best, supply hovered below one-third of required volumes, leaving a shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels. Using the average market price of Bonny Light crude, supplied by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the financial impact of this shortfall is significant. Bonny Light sold for $66.15 per barrel in October 2025, $65.22 in November, $68.05 in January 2026, and $72.33 in February. Taking the average of these four months, the crude price stood at approximately $67.94 per barrel.

At this price, the 29.21 million barrels supplied to the refinery were worth about $1.98bn. Meanwhile, the 79.53 million barrels not supplied represented an estimated $5.40bn in crude value that Dangote refinery could not access. In total, the refinery’s crude requirement for the five-and-a-half-month period would have amounted to roughly $7.39bn at average market prices.

Further analysis showed that monthly deliveries consistently lagged behind demand. Even in November, the highest supply month, what was delivered was 6.45 million barrels, representing about 32.6 per cent of the refinery’s monthly requirement.

In October, the supply of 4.55 million barrels accounted for roughly 23 per cent of demand, while December’s 4.30 million barrels represented about 21.7 per cent. January’s 5.65 million barrels translated to approximately 28.6 per cent, and February’s 4.66 million barrels stood at about 23.6 per cent of required volumes.

The March 1 to 15 supply of 3.60 million barrels, when compared with half-month requirements, also showed that deliveries remained below expected levels. In all, the data indicated that monthly supply ranged between about one-fifth and one-third of the refinery’s needs, underscoring a persistent gap in feedstock availability.

The development highlights ongoing challenges surrounding crude supply to domestic refiners, particularly as Nigeria seeks to scale up local refining capacity and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

In October 2024, the naira-for-crude deal between the Dangote refinery and NNPC was introduced as a policy initiative that allows the refinery to purchase crude oil in naira rather than in US dollars. The arrangement was designed to ease pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, stabilise the local currency, and support domestic refining by ensuring a steady supply of crude to local processors.

Under the agreement, NNPC supplies crude oil to the Dangote refinery, which in turn sells refined petroleum products in naira within the domestic market, helping to retain value within the local economy and potentially reducing fuel prices. The deal initially covered a six-month period and has since been extended through new supply agreements, although challenges such as crude supply shortfalls and pricing dynamics have continued to test its effectiveness.

Earlier, the Dangote refinery had repeatedly lamented that it was not getting enough crude locally for its operations. As the Iran-US war continues to disrupt global oil supply, the Dangote refinery has effected multiple fuel price increases, raising petrol pump prices above N1,300 per litre at the moment.

Defending these price hikes, the Dangote refinery said in a statement that local crude producers were refusing to supply feedstock to its facility, forcing it to rely more on imported crude.

According to the company, the refinery also received just five cargoes every month from the national oil company instead of 13 cargoes, adding that the cargoes were paid for at international market prices.

“While we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria.

“The high crude cost is compounded by the fact that Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium,” it stated.

But the NNPC said it had intensified efforts to ensure a steady crude oil supply to the Dangote refinery as part of moves to stabilise fuel availability across the country. This came amid heightened global oil market volatility occasioned by the tension in the Middle East and growing reliance on local refining to meet Nigeria’s petroleum product demand.

Speaking during a recent webinar, the Managing Director of NNPC Retail Limited, Hubb Stokman, said the national oil company remains central to ensuring supply security through its statutory role.

“NNPC remains committed to its statutory role, of course, as a supplier of last resort, making sure of the stability and continuity of supply of petroleum products across the country,” he said.