Despite its status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria imported crude oil worth a staggering N5.734tn between January and December 2025 as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector, The PUNCH reports.

This comes in spite of the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

Yet, even as the policy sought to channel crude to local refineries, Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels and earned about N55.5tn from crude oil sales in 2025, highlighting a stark disconnect between robust upstream output and domestic supply shortages.

Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics and analysed by our correspondent on Tuesday, showed that the surge represents a dramatic shift from 2024, when no crude imports were recorded, indicating a 100 per cent increase year-on-year.

An analysis of the NBS Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report revealed that crude oil imports, classified under “Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude”, became one of Nigeria’s major import items in 2025, driven by supply shortages to domestic refineries.

In the first quarter alone, Nigeria imported crude worth N1.19tn, underscoring the urgency with which refinery operators turned to alternative feedstock sources.

The figure rose sharply by about 37.8 per cent to N1.64tn in the second quarter, before climbing further by 46.5 per cent to N2.403tn in the third quarter, reflecting intensifying domestic supply constraints.

However, imports dropped steeply by approximately 79.2 per cent to N499.75bn in the fourth quarter, suggesting a late-year easing in demand or improved local availability, though still indicative of a volatile and inconsistent crude supply environment throughout the year.

Although the NBS report did not name specific refineries, the pattern reflects the broader systemic failure in aligning domestic crude production with local refining demand.

A further breakdown of the figures shows wide monthly fluctuations in crude imports, reflecting unstable supply conditions in the domestic market.

Refineries imported crude worth N335.69bn in January, rising by 32.6 per cent to N445.27bn in February, before declining by 8.5 per cent to N407.29bn in March.

Imports dipped slightly to N335.31bn in April but surged dramatically by 116 per cent to N724.23bn in May, suggesting heightened supply constraints locally.

In June, imports fell by 19.5 per cent to N582.94bn, before spiking to a yearly peak of N1.28tn in July, an increase of about 120 per cent, marking the highest monthly import bill in the year.

This was followed by a 51.8 per cent drop to N619.24bn in August, and further declines to N499.41bn in September and N407.08bn in October.

Imports plunged sharply by 77.2 per cent to N92.67bn in November, before dropping to zero in December, indicating a temporary easing of demand or improved local supply towards year-end.

Overall, the trend underscores a volatile supply environment, with refineries forced to adjust sourcing strategies month by month.

Findings by The PUNCH indicate that local refineries, ranging from modular plants to mega facilities such as the Dangote Refinery, are increasingly turning to international markets due to persistent challenges in sourcing crude domestically.

The refineries cite a combination of structural and commercial factors behind the development.

This was confirmed by the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria, which noted that refineries turn to imports for survival and increased production capacity.

The CORAN Publicity secretary, Eche Idoko, stated in an interview that domestic refiners within the supply chain have been marginalised.

He confirmed that for several months, no allocation has been received under the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation framework, naira for crude policy or through any other special arrangements.

He said, “Local refiners, especially the modular refineries, have not been getting crude, I mean zero allocation, under the DCSO or any other special arrangement.”

He said the DCSO implementation has been hampered by the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ policy

Idoko said a modular refinery like Opac couldn’t get crude, and it stopped production for months.

According to Idoko, local refineries have the capacity to produce more than their current output, blaming the lack of enough feedstock for the current output. “We have the capacity to produce far more than what we are producing now. The challenge has always been inadequate feedstock,” he stated.

Idoko stated that some modular refineries like OPAC produce about 10 per cent of their capacities, while some shut down due to a lack of crude oil.

“A good example, the OPAC refinery has a 10,000-barrel capacity. It produces just about 1,000, and it’s not consistent. Sometimes, the refinery is shut down for months because of the unavailability of crude. The Dangote refinery was recently producing at 60 per cent of its total capacity due to the unavailability of feedstock.”

Earlier this month, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals also cleared the air on the crude oil supply being received from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company under the naira-for-crude arrangement, disclosing that it receives five cargoes of crude monthly which are paid for in naira.

However, it stated that this falls significantly short of the 13 cargoes required each month to meet domestic demand.

The refinery in a statement issued further explained that the shortfall of eight cargoes is being bought from other sources outside the country.

In addition, it stated that the NNPC cargoes are priced at international market rates plus a premium.

As a result, the company said it is compelled to source additional crude from local and international traders, procuring foreign exchange at prevailing open market rates to complete the purchases.

Further investigations revealed that International Oil Companies operating in Nigeria have been reluctant to prioritise domestic crude supply, largely due to better pricing and fewer regulatory constraints in the international market.

Experts say IOCs prefer exporting crude under long-term contracts denominated in dollars, rather than selling locally under conditions that may involve pricing benchmarks, currency risks, or policy uncertainties.

They added that disputes over pricing frameworks, particularly when crude is sold at a premium and third-party influence, have further complicated domestic supply arrangements.

Similarly, an alternative solution provided by the government through the naira-for-crude policy to allow domestic refineries to purchase crude oil in local currency, reduce pressure on foreign exchange, and ensure a steady feedstock supply hasn’t met expectations.

The policy introduced in October 2024 gained prominence with the ramp-up of refining capacity, particularly from the Dangote Refinery, and was expected to mark a turning point in Nigeria’s downstream sector.

Under the arrangement, refiners would pay for crude in naira, while the government would manage foreign exchange implications through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

However, the 2025 import figures suggest that the policy has not fully achieved its core objective.

This situation is driven by several structural challenges, including a mismatch between allocated crude and refinery demand, persistent pricing disagreements over benchmark terms, concerns among upstream producers about naira volatility, and existing forward sales and export commitments that limit the volume of crude available for domestic refining.

The NBS data further showed that Nigeria sourced its imported crude primarily from African countries such as Algeria, Angola while imports from the United States of America accounting for the largest share.

This trend reflects the growing integration of global crude markets, where refiners prioritise reliability and quality over geographic proximity.